Bookmakers list Paris Saint Germain as marginal favourites yet most models call the Munich final a coin toss. Paris average three goals per match while Inter Milan concede little more than one every two games. That clash of attacking flair and defensive rigour sets up a showdown shaped by moments rather than sustained dominance.

Statistical engines from sports analytic firms give PSG a fifty two per cent chance of victory after one hundred thousand simulations. The difference lies mainly in Kylian Mbappé who generates one expected goal contribution every seventy minutes. Inter’s edge resides in structure. Simone Inzaghi’s team have allowed opponents fewer than five shots on target in any knockout match this season.

Form enters the equation. Paris secured Ligue One with games to spare and rotated heavily since the semi final while Inter battled to clinch Serie A on the penultimate weekend maintaining competitive rhythm. Some pundits argue rest favours recovery others believe momentum is priceless.

Key battles loom. Achraf Hakimi against Federico Dimarco decides wing supremacy and Marquinhos must track Lautaro Martínez dropping between the lines. On the bench both coaches carry impact options. Paris will unleash Bradley Barcola if chasing pace and Inter can flip shape by introducing Davide Frattesi for extra midfield bite.

Most predictions end with a cautious shrug. Paris possess the individual brilliance to break any lock but Inter specialise in denying exactly that kind of magic. Penalties lurk as a real possibility and few would bet confidently against Yann Sommer repeating his semi final heroics.